New calculations indicate about 450,000 fewer people than originally estimated actually visited the Gettysburg Battlefield in 2008 -- which means Gettysburg National Military Park overestimated the figure by about 42 percent.

By plugging some different numbers into its National Park Service-approved formula, the park now estimates that 1,072,954 people visited the battlefield last year.

In April, the park had estimated that number to be 1,530,351 visitors.

However, park spokeswoman Katie Lawhon pointed out that 2009 year-to-date numbers -- adjusted under the new formula -- show a 3-percent increase in visitation compared to likewise adjusted 2008 numbers.

That's significant because the park had estimated an 11-percent decrease in visitation from 2007 to 2008 when the annual report was released in April.

On Monday, Lawhon issued a news release explaining the park's newest calculation and the reasons behind it.

Lawhon said the adjusted numbers create "a baseline to get a better look at the trends."

She said visitation numbers do not directly impact the park's funding.

The counts, Lawhon said, exist to give the park the ability to pinpoint trends and then share that information with the public and other organizations, like the Gettysburg Convention and Visitors Bureau.

That bureau conducts its own annual survey of visitation to the Gettysburg area and estimated earlier this year that more than 3 million people came to Gettysburg in 2008.

Norris

Advertisement
Flowers said he can't analyze the park's numbers because he is not familiar with how they are calculated.

Flowers is the president of the bureau.

However, Flowers also said people should remember the numbers are estimates and surveys are "imperfect."

Given the major differences among estimates, Lawhon said there may be a reason for the National Park Service to initiate a more comprehensive look at Gettysburg visitation.

The last one was in 1994, she said.

"I would definitely be interested in more surveys," she said.

Lawhon said the formula change was initiated by the National Park Service Public Use Statistics Office, which coordinates visitor counting protocols throughout the Park Service system.

Officials there discovered that Gettysburg had been using outdated numbers when calculating its visitation estimates.

Since 1992, the park had based its estimates on the assumption that between 3.3 and 4.0 people were riding inside each car counted on the battlefield as part of the park's annual surveys.

No other park in the country was still using numbers that high, Lawhon said. But, she added, it's "hard to say" when the park should have adjusted those numbers for a more realistic visitation estimate.

The statistics office has since adjusted those numbers to between 2.4 and 2.6, depending on the month.

"It was high time we did it," Lawhon said.

BASED ON ATTENDENCE

Here's how Gettysburg keeps track of its attendance:

Monthly and annual visitation to Gettysburg is based on readings from an inductive loop traffic counter across Hancock Avenue adjacent to the 19th Maine Infantry marker.

Attendance figures for the park's museum and visitor center are collected and managed by the Gettysburg Foundation and are not specifically included in the park visitation estimates.